Saturday, October 17, 2009

Week 6 Football Picks

This week looks fairly easy, but that's always when they get you. I've been doing uncharacteristically well picking games without the spread, being ahead of most of the pack on three different games, in the running for some prizes.

The Saints get to play both New York teams at home two games in a row with a bye week in between, so it's the Giants' time to visit the Superdome this week. It will be Eli Manning's first game there despite growing up as a football player in Louisiana. The Saints (-3) did better than I expected on defense against the Jets, so I think they will continue their good work this week, despite finally facing an established starter (previously: Stafford, Kolb, Edwards, Sanchez). Drew Brees has gone two weeks without throwing a touchdown, so that obviously has to stop against the Giants injured secondary.

The Jets started 3–0 after beating the Texans, Patriots, and Titans but then lost to the Saints and Dolphins. The latest game likely caused the defense to feel that they need to prove themselves. The Bills are in disarray and it's about time for Terrell Owens to go crazy, which just might happen while he has to face Darrelle Revis on Sunday. It should be a pretty easy road for the Jets (-9.5) if they do in fact get their defense back into its correct form.

Regrettably, it has to be another divisional rivalry for survivor this week. It's a rough week, with few clear good-bad matchups. The Eagles on the road against the Raiders would be the easiest pick, but I already used them against the Chiefs. The Packers are at home against the Lions, but they aren't the laughing-stock of the league this season. That honor falls to the Browns, who won the season's worst game last week 6–3 against the Bills. The Steelers (-14) are going to roll over the Browns, despite Pittsburgh's defensive injuries.

And the rest:
Bengals (-5) vs. Texans: surprisingly good Bengals defense
Packers (-13.5) vs. Lions: another season of big lines for the Lions
Ravens (+3) @ Vikings: it's time for the Vikings to lose a game
Panthers (-3.5) @ Buccaneers: would be a much bigger line in Carolina
Chiefs (+6.5) @ Redskins: so little faith in the Redskins
Rams (+9.5) @ Jaguars: Bulger is back and the Jaguars were shut out last week
Eagles (-14) @ Raiders: the Raiders didn't even come close last week
Seahawks (-3) vs. Cardinals: that home stadium makes a big difference
Patriots (-9.5) vs. Titans: time for Brady to get right against this defense
Falcons (-3.5) vs. Bears: both offense and defense clicking for the Falcons
Broncos (+3.5) @ Chargers: the better team is the underdog on the road

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