Week 13 Football picks

Texans (+8.5) @ Eagles: figured their offense would be good enough and just missed
Saints (-6.5) @ Bengals: time to overpower a weak AFC opponent
Bears (-3.5) @ Lions: the Bears look real and Stanton is starting for the Lions
49ers (+9.5) @ Packers: enough talent on the 49ers to keep it close enough
Jaguars (+3.5) @ Titans: don't understand this line at all, but Collins is back for the Titans
Broncos (+8.5) @ Chiefs: keeping my policy of expecting close divisional games
Dolphins (-4.5) vs. Browns: the Browns' quarterback committee lands on Delhomme again
Bills (+6.5) @ Vikings: a one-week burst for the Vikings under the new coach last week
Redskins (+7.5) @ Giants: the Giants are like the Chargers, good on both sides, but turnovers
Raiders (+12.5) @ Chargers: I guess they forgot that the Raiders are playing well this season
Buccaneers (+3.5) vs. Falcons: a test on the road for the Falcons
Seahawks (-5.5) vs. Panthers: a long lonely journey for the Panthers
Rams (-3.5) @ Cardinals: time for the Rams to make a statement on the road and keep up with the Seahawks
Colts (-5.5) vs. Cowboys: the Colts could win by 20 or 3, probably not in between
Steelers (+3.5) @ Ravens: I think the Ravens will win outright by a field goal
Jets (+3.5) @ Patriots: the Jets are undefeated in five games on the road this season

Week 12 Football picks

Three games on Thanksgiving. Lucky us!

Patriots (-6.5) @ Lions: of course Brady is playing, forget that questionable tag
Saints (-3.5) @ Cowboys: it's time to stop the Cowboys roll
Jets (-9.5) vs. Bengals: too bad this won't be a heated rematch of last year's playoffs
Falcons (-2.5) vs. Packers: the Falcons are 5-0 at home, last two against good teams
Steelers (-6.5) @ Bills: this could have the feeling of a Steelers home game as fans travel well
Panthers (+10.5) @ Browns: I like the large spread even though the Panthers are pathetic
Jaguars (+7.5) @ Giants: strange spread with the Giants missing key wide receivers
Redskins (-2.5) vs. Vikings: watch out for the Vikings energy under new coach
Titans (+6.5) @ Texans: third QB starting for the Titans, but not against the best of defenses
Seahawks (+1.5) vs. Chiefs: two surprising division leaders at 5-5 and 6-4
Raiders (-3.5) vs. Dolphins: Thigpen did not impress in his start last week
Bears (+3.5) vs. Eagles: home team getting a lot of points for having the same records
Buccaneers (+7.5) @ Ravens: the Buccaneers are surprising but should get more respect
Rams (+3.5) @ Broncos: the Broncos laid down to a divisional rival on Monday night
Colts (-3.5) vs. Chargers: should be a fun, interesting game
49ers (-1.5) @ Cardinals: these could have been the two best teams in the division

Week 11 Football picks

I'm not feeling too good about this week, and already have a loss from Thursday. A lot of even matchups in my mind in this crazy season.

Dolphins (-1.5) vs. Bears: thought the Dolphins could hold on at home using wildcat
Bengals (-5.5) vs. Bills: similar records, but a lot more talent on the Bengals
Lions (+6.5) @ Cowboys: the Cowboys should get a close first win at home
Ravens (-10.5) @ Panthers: Brian St. Pierre will be on his back for most of the game
Browns (+1.5) @ Jaguars: Colt McCoy has been impressive, but so have the Jaguars
Steelers (-7.5) vs. Raiders: bouncing back with another home game
Redskins (+7.5) @ Titans: Vick made the Redskins look worse than they are
Chiefs (-7.5) vs. Cardinals: Cassel and Charles lead the Chiefs to victory
Vikings (+3.5) vs. Packers: I'll take Favre and the home points against his old team
Texans (+6.5) @ Jets: the Jets have just been getting by recently
Rams (+3.5) vs. Falcons: both teams are better at home and this game is in St. Louis
Buccaneers (+3.5) @ 49ers: a long cross-country trip won't slow down the Buccaneers
Seahawks (+11.5) @ Saints: too many points not to take a division leader
Colts (+3.5) @ Patriots: the Colts could break Brady's home winning streak
Giants (+3.5) @ Eagles: maybe sticking with my heart too much but it should be close
Broncos (+9.5) @ Chargers: another close divisional matchup

Week 10 Football picks

Lots of road teams:
Ravens (+1.5) @ Falcons (from Thursday)
Lions (+2.5) @ Bills: stay winless, Bills
Vikings (-1.5) @ Bears: Martz offense going down
Jets (-3.5) @ Browns: another former team for Mangini
Colts (-7.5) vs. Bengals: clearly the Colts are rolling
Titans (-.5) @ Dolphins: Pennington starting now
Buccaneers (-7.5) vs. Panthers: disappointing and injured Panthers
Texans (+1.5) @ Jaguars: close divisional matchup
Broncos (+.5) vs. Chiefs: not believing in the Chiefs still
Cowboys (+13.5) @ Giants: the Cowboys should keep it close enough
Seahawks (+3.5) @ Cardinals: the Seahawks could take the division
Rams (+5.5) @ 49ers: the 49ers' last chance to make a run
Patriots (+4.5) @ Steelers: seems like a lot of points for Belichick
Eagles (-3.5) @ Redskins: McNabb having problems with Shanahan

Week 9 Football picks

What a terrible way to lose in survivor. The Cowboys were still playing like crap and down all game to the Jaguars, ending my season halfway through it. If I was still in it, the Patriots would be the best pick, but I used them in week three. The only other logical pick it seems is the Jets, on the road in Detroit. Again, only 13 games this week, with six teams off.

Buccaneers (+8.5) @ Falcons: aren't these two teams tied for the division lead?
Bills (+2.5) vs. Bears: two consecutive road overtime losses for the Bills
Patriots (-4.5) @ Browns: McCoy has had a tough start to his career against the Saints and Steelers
Lions (+4.5) vs. Jets: while the Jets should win, these are two decent defenses
Cardinals (+8.5) @ Vikings: another strangely large spread, two equally bad teams
Panthers (+7.5) vs. Saints: just a case of taking a big home underdog
Dolphins (+5.5) @ Ravens: the Dolphins are playing well enough to keep this close
Texans (+1.5) vs. Chargers: the Chargers are leading the league in offensive yards, but turnovers kill
Seahawks (+5.5) vs. Giants: would have like the bigger line, which moved after Whitehurst was tabbed for first start
Chiefs (+2.5) @ Raiders: you wouldn't have thought at the beginning of the season that these two would be on top
Colts (+2.5) @ Eagles: a rare game as an underdog for the Colts
Packers (-7.5) vs. Cowboys: the Cowboys are so bad and look like they don't want to play hard
Bengals (+4.5) vs. Steelers: a hard-fought game on Monday Night Football

Let's have some fun with over/unders (from Bodog):
TB @ ATL: over 45
CHI @ BUF: under 41.5
NE @ CLE: over 44
NYJ @ DET: under 42.5
ARI @ MIN: over 43
NO @ CAR: over 40.5
MIA @ BAL: under 41
SD @ HOU: over 50
NYG @ SEA: under 41
KC @ OAK: over 41
IND @ PHI: under 47
DAL @ GB: under 46
PIT @ CIN: under 41

Week 8 Football picks

Maybe I should have saved the Chiefs for this week because they are playing the Bills. So I don't have Yahoo users' most popular pick this week and have to choose between a bunch of single-digit percentages of users' picks. As bad as the Cowboys have looked, they also had good moments against the Giants, some with Romo and some with Kitna against the prevent defense. Kitna was not ready last week, but he is not an invalid and should do well this week, along with their running game, against the Jaguars, so it's the Cowboys for their first home win for me.

All home teams are favored this week, including the designated home team in London, the 49ers:
Dolphins (+2.5) @ Bengals: the Bengals are a mess
Cowboys (-2.5) vs. Jaguars: the Jaguars couldn't do much for the last two weeks
Redskins (+2.5) @ Lions: the return of Matthew Stafford will be a painful one
Chiefs (-7.5) vs. Bills: heartbreaker for the Bills last week in overtime
Rams (-3.5) vs. Panthers: the Rams are chugging along winning every home game, losing road games
Packers (+6.5) @ Jets: the Packers have enough healthy talent to keep it close
49ers (-.5) vs. Broncos: a couple disappointing teams will probably put on a show in London
Titans (+3.5) @ Chargers: I see this game decided by a late field goal
Buccaneers (+3.5) @ Cardinals: the Buccaneers can slide into a tie for first place in the NFC South
Patriots (-5.5) vs. Vikings: Randy Moss can't help the Favres and his foot injuries enough
Seahawks (+2.5) @ Raiders: the Seahawks are the surprising only team to be above .500 in the NFC West
Saints (-.5) vs. Steelers: by this spread, the Steelers are the better team, but it's Halloween in New Orleans
Texans (+5.5) @ Colts: I'll take the team that won the first game with the points

Week 7 Football picks

Time to get risky with survivor. I'm going with the Chiefs this week to knock off a Jacksonville team that looks depleted after a 30-3 Monday Night Football loss to the Titans. It's a short weeks and their quarterback was injured, making the Jaguars ripe for the picking.

Falcons (-3.5) vs. Bengals: should be getting more of a point spread
Redskins (+2.5) @ Bears: the Bears are only getting the requisite points for being home in an even matchup
Eagles (+3.5) @ Titans: I should have had more faith in Kolb
Chiefs (-5.5) vs. Jaguars: the lock of the week
Dolphins (+3.5) vs. Steelers: should be a dogfight
Saints (-13.5) vs. Browns: time for the Saints to dominate again
Buccaneers (-2.5) vs. Rams: a couple of down teams with good records
49ers (-3.5) @ Panthers: I guess people still think the 49ers will be good
Ravens (-13.5) vs. Bills: the Bills' winless season continues
Cardinals (+5.5) @ Seahawks: who knew Max Hall could play?
Patriots (+2.5) @ Chargers: the Chargers are 2-0 at home but the Patriots are hot
Raiders (+6.5) @ Broncos: the Raiders could be ahead of two teams in the division if they win
Vikings (+2.5) @ Packers: the trendy Super Bowl pick has too many injured players
Giants (+3.5) @ Cowboys: if the Cowboys lose, Super Bowl talk is over

Week 6 Football picks

Luckily, I have two survivor entries, and I went with my gut in the main one that I had been making the picks posted here, so I'm still alive with the Falcons. This week, it makes perfect sense to take the Giants, who are resurgent, against the Lions, a dangerous team but still not too good. The Giants don't seem to play any easy games the rest of the way, as they have yet to start their division schedule.

Bears (-6.5) vs. Seahawks: Orton coming back to lead Martz's offense that was good before meeting the Giants
Ravens (+2.5) @ Patriots: could be the game for AFC supremacy
Giants (-10.5) vs. Lions: the Giants defense is taking over again
Falcons (+1.5) @ Eagles: tough matchup on the road, but no Vick for the Eagles
Browns (+13.5) @ Steelers: look for a low-scoring game on both sides
Dolphins (+1.5) @ Packers: Rodgers is playing, but the Packers have many injuries
Rams (+8.5) vs. Chargers: enough talent to take the home team with the points
Buccaneers (+5.5) vs. Saints: the Saints are not doing well enough to get this big of a cushion on the road, in division
Texans (-4.5) vs. Chiefs: the Texans should bounce back against a Chiefs team over their heads
Raiders (+6.5) @ 49ers: the 49ers will pick up their first win in a close game
Broncos (+3.5) vs. Jets: the Jets will not pull away on the road
Vikings (-1.5) vs. Cowboys: one team is going to be 1-4
Colts (-3.5) @ Redskins: the Colts don't look great, but Peyton Manning always is
Titans (-3.5) @ Jaguars: the Titans should be better than the Jaguars in the end

Week 5 Football picks

It came down to a choice between the Falcons on the road against the Browns or the Bengals at home against the 49ers. Coincidentally, the Bengals lost to the Browns last week. While the Buccaneers are coming off of their bye week, my pick is still going to be the Bengals. There are not a lot of wide point spreads overall this week, but maybe some should be bigger.

Jaguars (-1.5) @ Bills: the Bills are a sorry team and a candidate to go 0-16
Bengals (-6.5) vs. Buccaneers: the T.Ocho show is getting heated up
Falcons (-3.5) @ Browns: hopefully no letdown after the Falcons had to play hard against the 49ers
Rams (+3.5) @ Lions: would go with the Lions if Stafford was playing
Chiefs (+3.5) @ Colts: while I don't think the Chiefs are that good, the Colts aren't either
Redskins (+2.5) vs. Packers: taking the home points against the team with no running game
Panthers (+2.5) vs. Bears: up-and-coming Jimmy Clausen against old backup Todd Collins
Ravens (-7.5) vs. Broncos: the Broncos are going to have more problems this week
Texans (-3.5) vs. Giants: doubting the Giants ability to keep the momentum
Cardinals (+7.5) vs. Saints: almost obvious to take the home points in this matchup
Raiders (+6.5) vs. Chargers: the Raiders could do well enough to keep it close
Titans (+6.5) @ Cowboys: the Cowboys haven't looked like that Super Bowl team yet
Eagles (+3.5) @ 49ers: back to the Kevin Kolb era in Philadelphia
Vikings (+4.5) @ Jets: Favre to Moss is going to be an interesting connection

Week 2 Football picks

Simply look at the biggest point spread for the survivor pick this week: the Packers at home against the Bills. Watch out for some high scoring, even as the packers lost their number one running back.

Falcons (-6.5) vs. Cardinals: round two for Derek Anderson won't go so well
Bengals (+1.5) vs. Ravens: don't underestimate home field advantage in division
Browns (-1.5) vs. Chiefs: the Chiefs were barely good enough to beat Chargers
Bears (+8.5) @ Cowboys: big spread for a week one winner against a loser
Eagles (-3.5) @ Lions: you saw what the Lions didn't do without Stafford
Packers (-13.5) vs. Bills: should be a blowout
Titans (-5.5) vs. Steelers: both teams were impressive last week
Vikings (-5.5) vs. Dolphins: Favre will be back to making great plays this week
Panthers (-2.5) vs. Buccaneers: the Buccaneers only won against a bad team
Broncos (-3.5) vs. Seahawks: the Seahawks surprised many, but I expect Broncos to bounce back
Raiders (-4.5) vs. Rams: is it possible that the Raiders could not be the most incompetent team again?
Jets (+1.5) vs. Patriots: maybe picking too much with my heart, but Jets are tough
Jaguars (+7.5) @ Chargers: seems obvious after last week's Chargers problems
Texans (-2.5) @ Redskins: got burned picking against Redskins at home last week
Giants (+5.5) @ Colts: to large of a spread for two good teams
Saints (-4.5) @ 49ers: should be an easy one for the champions

Week 1 Football picks

I'm a little late with this post, seeing as the football season has already kicked off, but my picks remain. I had a tough time selecting a pick for survivor, as it came down to the Giants, Titans, and Bears. The Giants are opening their new stadium, but played poorly in the last game at Giants Stadium against the same Panthers. The Titans are playing a Raiders team that has come up with many survivor upsets, and the Bears are playing in division against the Lions. Since I read that divisional games do not have any more upsets than normal, I am picking the Bears. Now, on to the point spreads (based on ESPN):

Saints (-6.5) vs. Vikings: so much energy in the Superdome
Dolphins (-3.5) @ Bills: playing in Buffalo isn't too tough in the first game
Bears (-6.5) vs. Lions: the Lions are still a league doormat until proven otherwise
Titans (-6.5) vs. Raiders: the end of last season was promising for the Titans
Bengals (+5.5) @ Patriots: a close game with the home team winning outright
Panthers (+7.5) @ Giants: similar teams to last season when the Panthers won
Falcons (-2.5) vs. Steelers: tough to win in Pittsburgh, but Falcons still on the rise
Browns (+2.5) vs. Buccaneers: two equally bad teams
Broncos (+2.5) @ Jaguars: risky pick, but the Broncos should be better
Colts (-3.5) @ Texans: Colts probably start another string of wins
Seahawks (+2.5) vs. 49ers: not sure on this one; home field advantage?
Packers (-1.5) @ Eagles: a trendy Super Bowl pick with a tough road opener
Cardinals (-3.5) @ Rams: as much as the Cardinals have fallen, they are still better than the Rams
Cowboys (-3.5) @ Redskins: probably should take the home points, but going with better team
Jets (-3.5) @ Ravens: will be a close, low-scoring game
Chargers (-5.5) @ Chiefs: this could be dangerous with Chargers' new starting RB and holdouts

First football Sunday

To lead off the day's action that is important to me, the Jets were in Houston to face the Texans. I was very pleased with the way the team played, and they convinced a skeptical fan. I did not expect Rex Ryan's tough defense to show up this early, especially with two key players suspended and against one of the top offenses in the NFL. However, the Texans went the whole first half without scoring.

After a three-and-out on their first drive, the Jets offense got down to business in their second drive. The team looked very inconsistent, except on third downs, when Mark Sanchez went 3–4 for 43 yards, setting a tone for a good day on third downs. The only incompletion led to a Jay Feely field goal.

Two offensive drives later for the Texans, it looked like they were rolling towards their first points. Just after entering the red zone, Steve Slaton fumbled at the end of an 18-yard rush when Mike DeVito put his helmet on the ball. On the ensuing drive for the Jets, Chansi Stuckey had one reception for 20 yards and a second reception for 30 yards when he was left wide open for a touchdown; both of these receptions were on, you guessed it, third down.

On the Jets first drive of the second half, Sanchez was 4–4 and both Thomas Jones and Leon Washington ran the ball, with Jones picking up the one-yard touchdown run. After a couple of punts, for some reason, the Texans thought it would be a good idea to go for it on 4th and 2 at their own 49 with just under four minutes left in the fourth quarter. An incomplete pass by Matt Schaub meant that the Jets got the ball, but they went three-and-out.

Sanchez's only big mistake of the game came in the early fourth quarter when he threw an interception to John Busing. Busing fumbled as he was getting tackled, but Dominique Barber picked up the ball and ran 48 yards for the touchdown. The Jets quickly recovered on their next possession: Keller had a 40-yard reception and Jones ran 38 yards for a touchdown. After lining up in victory formation at the end of the game, Sanchez first gave the ball to the referee, then realized he might want to keep it as a memento. 24–7

The Giants game at home against the Redskins seemed to be very similar, as Eli Manning was also throwing for conversions on third downs and the scoring started with a Lawrence Tynes field goal on the first drive. After a long rush by Clinton Portis to start the Redskins offense, Antwaan Randle El was sacked on a play where he should have thrown the ball away after receiving the toss from the quarterback. That stalled the Redskins on their first drive.

The Giants then drove down to the three-yard line and gave the ball to Brandon Jacobs on 3rd and 1 after failing to convert with Ahmad Bradshaw on the first drive. The first quarter ended with no gain, and the second quarter opened the same way, as Jacobs and the offensive line again failed on fourth down. The Redskins only gained three yards, which left the Giants in good field position after the punt. Manning made two completions on third down, the second going to Mario Manningham who avoided tacklers and racked up yards after the catch on a 30-yard touchdown reception.

The defense and special teams ruled the rest of the quarter. Corey Webster intercepted Jason Campbell, keeping his feet inbounds on the sideline. Andre Carter sacked Manning and forced a fumble. Osi Umenyiora made his presence felt in his first game back from injury sacking and forcing and recovering a fumble from Campbell and taking the ball into the endzone. The two-minute drill worked well for the Redskins, but it looked like they would only get a field goal before halftime. However, punter and holder Hunter Smith easily ran the ball in for a touchdown on a fake field goal attempt.

DeAngelo Hall intercepted Manning on the fourth series of the second half, running the ball back to the Giants' 11-yard line. It looked like the Reskins had that one play that would swing the momentum in their favor, but the defense held strong and Shaun Suisham kicked a field goal, and the Giants then answered with two straight drives that ended in Tynes field goals. The Redskins had a little over three minutes left to score 13 points and only used half of that time to score a touchdown on a pass to Chris Cooley, but they could not recover the onisde kick, which meant the Giants could use the victory formation. 23–17

Both teams were shaky against midde-of-the-pack teams, but that can be attributed to the first week of the season. They also showed the reasons why they can be considered good teams this year. The Jets have a tough schedule in the next few weeks while the Giants have it easier after the Cowboys in week two.

Personally, I am still alive with both of my suicide/survivor picks, Saints over Lions and Ravens over Chiefs. I did not do so well picking against the spread in week one, but I was not very confident in my picks. Thanks to Drew Brees for giving me over 60 points in a fantasy football league that awards half of a point for each pass completion and six points for a touchdown pass (Brees had six). No Adrian Peterson love for me, since I did not have a high pick in any league.